Mosaic Lab · Cross-study report

The open block: the same four tables, nothing at the centre

complete

4,000,000 complete games at five, four, three and two players — no Prism, no neutral anchor, no guaranteed connection.

Studies 5–8 replay the campaign's second half with the wild centre tile removed. The first placement commits to a real colour, openings carry information, and a hand that cannot connect must pass — a move that does not exist in practice when the Prism anchors the table. Each study is paired deal-for-deal with its prism twin: identical shuffles, identical goals, one rule changed. (The head-to-head between the blocks is the synthesis report, next.)

Within the block, the prism studies' pattern repeats — a persona ladder that table size cannot bend, and a set of metrics that slide monotonically as real minds leave the table — plus two things the prism block never showed: a first-mover edge that is simply gone, and 1,727,760 forced passes.

The four studies

4,000,000
games in this comparison
0
persona rank changes across all four sizes
26.4% → 38.2%
stealth wins, five players → duel
1,727,760
forced passes across the block

What table size cannot touch

Normalize every persona's win rate by its table's fair share (1/5, 1/4, 1/3, 1/2) and the four studies collapse onto one ladder. Order fixed by the five-player standings — a crossing would be visible, not resorted away.

Personas

Persona win rate as a multiple of fair share, by table size

1.00× = fair shareThe Honest OneThe Honest One, 5 players: 1.098× fair share1.10×The Honest One, 4 players: 1.104× fair share1.10×The Honest One, 3 players: 1.108× fair share1.11×The Honest One, 2 players: 1.093× fair share1.09×The HunterThe Hunter, 5 players: 1.067× fair share1.07×The Hunter, 4 players: 1.070× fair share1.07×The Hunter, 3 players: 1.067× fair share1.07×The Hunter, 2 players: 1.055× fair share1.05×The HoarderThe Hoarder, 5 players: 1.060× fair share1.06×The Hoarder, 4 players: 1.060× fair share1.06×The Hoarder, 3 players: 1.050× fair share1.05×The Hoarder, 2 players: 1.015× fair share1.02×The SpenderThe Spender, 5 players: 1.023× fair share1.02×The Spender, 4 players: 1.027× fair share1.03×The Spender, 3 players: 1.017× fair share1.02×The Spender, 2 players: 1.008× fair share1.01×The OpportunistThe Opportunist, 5 players: 0.993× fair share0.99×The Opportunist, 4 players: 0.994× fair share0.99×The Opportunist, 3 players: 0.991× fair share0.99×The Opportunist, 2 players: 1.000× fair share1.00×The LiarThe Liar, 5 players: 0.940× fair share0.94×The Liar, 4 players: 0.926× fair share0.93×The Liar, 3 players: 0.923× fair share0.92×The Liar, 2 players: 0.937× fair share0.94×
5 players4 players3 players2 players
Six personas × four table sizes, n=4,000,000 games. Dashed line: exactly fair.

FindingThe ladder is rigid — not one crossing. Across all four sizes the standings never change: The Honest One, The Hunter, The Hoarder, The Spender, The Opportunist, The Liar, in that order, at every table. The Honest One wins 1.10× / 1.10× / 1.11× / 1.09× its fair share at 5 / 4 / 3 / 2 players; The Liar never climbs above 0.94×. Even the prism block's one rank swap — the Hoarder yielding to the Spender in the duel — does not happen here: the Hoarder slips from 1.06× to 1.02× but keeps its rung (Spender: 1.01×).

FindingThe first-mover edge is gone. Moving first is worth 0.99× / 0.99× / 0.99× / 0.99× fair share across the four sizes — within 0.7% of exactly fair everywhere, the flattest line in the lab. Without a wild centre, the opening placement buys no guaranteed connection; it only commits information first. What the prism block measured as a first-mover premium was never really about moving first.

FairnessSeats and goal colours stay flat everywhere: no seat deviates more than 2.6% of fair share in any study, no colour more than 60.2%. Remove the anchor and the game stays structurally fair.

Turn order at every size

Win rate by real-player turn order — k bars for k players. With the Prism these bars tilt toward the opener at every size; here they sit level with the fair line. The flattest bars in the lab.

Turn order

5 players

20% = fairMoves 1stMoves 1st: 19.9%19.9%Moves 2ndMoves 2nd: 20.0%20.0%Moves 3rdMoves 3rd: 20.1%20.1%Moves 4thMoves 4th: 20.0%20.0%Moves 5thMoves 5th: 20.0%20.0%

Turn order

4 players

25% = fairMoves 1stMoves 1st: 24.8%24.8%Moves 2ndMoves 2nd: 25.0%25.0%Moves 3rdMoves 3rd: 25.1%25.1%Moves 4thMoves 4th: 25.1%25.1%

Turn order

3 players

33% = fairMoves 1stMoves 1st: 33.1%33.1%Moves 2ndMoves 2nd: 33.5%33.5%Moves 3rdMoves 3rd: 33.4%33.4%

Turn order

2 players

50% = fairMoves 1stMoves 1st: 49.7%49.7%Moves 2ndMoves 2nd: 50.3%50.3%

Quirks at the middle of the table

Non-monotonePasses per game peak at 3 players — 0.40 / 0.45 / 0.48 / 0.40 across 5 / 4 / 3 / 2 players — while the share of games touched by a pass climbs monotonically (5.1% / 6.0% / 6.9% / 7.8%). The duel resolves the tension: its games are the likeliest to contain a lock-out, but at ~26 moves they are also the shortest — a stuck hand tends to stay stuck for several rounds, and short games leave fewer turns in which to stay locked out.

Non-monotoneShared victories peak at 3 players again — 1.78% / 2.05% / 2.10% / 1.81% — the same three-player quirk the prism block showed, at roughly three times the rate. Whatever makes the three-player table the friendliest to simultaneous finishes, it is a property of the table, not of the anchor.

The full table

Every compared metric, all four studies. Per-study detail, methodology and chart provenance live in the individual reports.

Appendix

Metric5 players4 players3 players2 players
Games1,000,0001,000,0001,000,0001,000,000
Mean moves per game32.330.828.625.8
Median moves29272522
Chain endings97.5%96.6%95.4%93.8%
Exhaustion endings2.5%3.4%4.6%6.2%
Shared victories1.78%2.05%2.10%1.81%
Wins ended by an action16.4%17.6%19.5%22.1%
Forced passes per game0.400.450.480.40
Games with a forced pass5.1%6.0%6.9%7.8%
Stealth wins (goal unproven)26.4%29.5%33.3%38.2%
Avg opponents who knew the winner’s goal1.531.431.281.11
Goal changes per game9.568.897.946.82
Wins with an acquired goal61.8%59.8%57.2%54.4%
First mover vs fair share0.99×0.99×0.99×0.99×
Avg board area (cells)32.130.929.227.1
Avg tiles left in deck at end14.015.217.019.5

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